The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered Pakistan’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3%, down from 3.2% projected three months earlier. This revision is part of the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook Update: Global Growth – Divergent and Uncertain.”
Pakistan’s GDP growth is projected to remain at 4% in 2026. Although the IMF did not specify reasons for the downgrade, the adjustment underscores the country’s ongoing economic challenges. The updated forecast aligns with the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) recent projection of 3% growth for fiscal year 2024-25, slightly up from 2.8%.
Globally, the IMF predicts growth of 3.3% for 2025 and 2026, below the historical average of 3.7%. Chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted diverging growth patterns, with strong U.S. performance offsetting weaker outcomes elsewhere.
Inflation is expected to ease, dropping to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, while energy prices are forecasted to decline by 2.6%. However, due to adverse weather, non-fuel commodity prices may rise by 2.5%.
Major economies show varied trends: the U.S. is set to grow by 2.7% in 2025, while China and India are expected to grow at 4.6% and 6.5%, respectively. The global economy remains uncertain, requiring tailored policy responses.